9th July 2018

When President Trump arrives later this week for his semi-official visit to the UK, it's becoming uncertain as to whether or not he will be greeted by the Prime Minister or the acting Prime Minister. For the supposed collective agreement by the Cabinet last Friday, about the final proposal for the conditions to leave the EU is falling apart already. So that meeting was just a day in the country enjoyed (?) at an English Country House.

With members of the Prime Minister's own party declaring – before and after – that they would vote against the agreement, and the beginnings of resignations by her Minister, her political position is under major attack. In fact so far, the UK Brexit negotiator and the Foreign Secretary have resigned, producing a rather rudderless government on the international stage. The EU negotiator meanwhile appears to look on in dismay, but privately I'm sure is rubbing his hands with glee. Punishing the UK was clearly their objective from the start, but now the UK itself is stabbing itself in the back.

I wonder if it might not be a good policy to prosecute politicians whose own hubris makes them produce policies that do not put the country first, but instead enable them to establish their views in law. The biggest culprit in this débâcle was David Cameron, who couldn't negotiate any compromise with the EU Commission when he was Prime Minister. Then running scared against political opposition at home, called a referendum completely unnecessarily. Realising the mess he created, he scuttled off out of politics altogether.

The British public does not get off scot-free either. Young people of voting age who were dismayed at the referendum result, didn't vote. They abrogated their future to disinterest in the country's prosperity. Had they voted, the result may well have been different, but they've only just realised that now – too late.

26th November 2018

As far as the twenty-seven EU leaders, the President of the European Commission, the President of the European Council and the UK Prime Minister, Theresa May are concerned, Brexit is now a done deal. The UK officially leaves the EU on 29th March 2019 and is then subject to the terms of a deal agreed over the week-end just gone. But it's not legally binding and it has yet to be ratified by the UK parliament. Across the country and the political parties, nobody else likes the deal. It is really only big business who want to press ahead. Armageddon is forecast if the deal is rejected and it is claimed that the UK will implode. The economy will collapse, nothing will be imported or exported and the country will be set upon a war-time rationing regime.

If any of this happens it will influence the economies and logistics of the EU countries, so that a no deal is not something to countenanced. So for most people and certainly businesses, a no deal scenario is to be avoided, but how? The situation has less clarity now than when the public first voted to leave the EU two years ago. Some of the Armageddon scenario that was forecast immediately following the vote has not happened. The UK has not collapsed. World trade is not just the EU and even though 44% currently, of UK exports are to the EU, the world is a changing place with ups and downs in the economies of all the countries. It is this fact that those who believe in a complete break from the EU, look to as a viable economic progression.

But there can be doubt that the deal reached with the EU is not the one voted for at the referendum and cracks are already apparent. The Spanish Prime Minister believes that the deal ultimately allows Spain to regain the territory of Gibraltar – against the wishes of the population on the rock. The French Prime Minister says he is determined to maintain French fishing rights in UK territorial waters. Everyone on all sides agrees that an open border should be maintained between Eire and the UK in Northern Ireland, but total distrust is shown by the EU of the UK by establishing an insurance policy, called the Back Stop. It means that if the border does close the UK is required to stay within EU Customs control indefinitely. These are the very cherry-picking points that the UK was told anything similar was not allowed in the deal discussions.